Why are rain forecasts here always off… in the SAME direction?

started by HowardHigson, November 10, 2020
0 replies to this discussion
    • Member

      Here in Sonoma County, CA, we have rain generally between November and April.  I understand that, regardless of all the data and science and weather modeling that is used, they get things wrong.  As you get closer and closer to the forecasted time of an event, things change.

      My question is, why is the change always in the same direction with the rain forecasts here?  Almost without exception, forecasted rain, as you get closer and closer to the date, reduces severely, until there is almost no rain expected at all, in some cases.  If the modeling was objective, and based accurately on historic data, you would expect to be wrong in both directions: sometimes more, sometimes less rain materializing as you approach the time period.  But for the results to almost always be less rain, it reeks of an entertainment/drama bias that is intentional.  I’m hoping that such a take on something as traditional as weather-reporting is wrong, but I still wonder, especially since, in this area, we all are urgently yearning for as much rain for as long as possible – so it’s a terrible tease to constantly have your hopes shattered.

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