Long Time Weather Geek

started by RetiredWXMAN1, January 14, 2018
11 replies to this discussion
    • Member

      As my user time implies, I am a retired Meteorologist but still have my fingers in the field.  My areas were in research for about 15 years then product development and forecasting for the last 25 years before retiring in 2011.

      After all these years, Weather never gets old and there are always new events that have not been experienced before.

    • What is it like to be a meteorologist.

    • Member

      Hi my name is Penny

      Do you believe in global warming? Or just the natural cycles of the earth? Just curious. Thanks

      • Member

        Global warming is a natural cycle.  The same can be said of global cooling.  That said, global climate change can be complex.  Changes to the Earth’s orbit, its axis, solar irradiance, atmospheric clarity, or lack thereof can all play a role.  Man’s role in climate change is probably the least important. I would not say it’s insignificant.  Cities, pavement, and ash deposition have a warming effect by lowering albedo.  The clearing of forests have increased albedo; a cooling effect.  On balance, humans probably lower albedo to produce a warming with respect to insolation.  As for gaseous emissions, humans are responsible for a significant amount of co2 through combustion and respiration.  Methane is a potent greenhouse gas but resident time in the atmosphere is short.  Like all organisms, humans emit heat ( calories ) through a biological process known as metabolism. There are 6 billion humans so it’s no small amount.  The same is true of direct heat from combustion and the byproduct of lighting.  Not insignificant.  Some pre-eminent physicists such as Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT have increased their projections of heat trapping due to co2.  He originally stated a few hundredths of a degree F. but recently indicated a few to several tenths. ( if not more )  I’m not a scientist so your estimation of temperature increase is as good as mine. I’ve settled on 1.0 F. rise due to co2 alone  The problem with co2 is that it’s a moving target.  All things remaining equal, co2 will continue to rise due to human respiration and carbon-based burning –  a small but continual warming.  It doesn’t help matters that TWC personnel accentuate the cold.  Steph Abrams is notorious for this, often editorializing.  Others at TWC often characterize very cold air as “brutal”.  Undoubtedly, there are impressionable people who have raised their house thermostats; others doing so subconsciously.  I can only speculate on the unnecessary increased idling of cars and trucks. TWC has definitely been a contradiction when it comes to co2 and a warming climate.  That said, allow me to be unequivocal in my prediction for the rest of this winter.  The 404 ppm co2 is having a warming effect.  Arctic air masses that were projected to plunge into the lower 48 are only going to skirt the northern third of the U.S.  The efficacy of co2 in its warming is dependent on insolation.  Insolation is increasing quite naturally as we exit the depth of winter.  I contend this amount of co2 is making a difference!  The only caveat to this is emerging vegetation this Spring.  This draws down co2.  If favorable indices coincide, a severe late season cold outbreak and blizzard might occur.  We are now in a period of low solar flux.  This condition increases the odds of such weather occurring.  I would not say it’s likely to occur as the total carbon-sink of the U.S. has decreased since the last such highly anomalous weather of this sort.  I refer you to the April 6-7 1982 blizzard. This was borne from a full latitude trough.  Such a trough is likely to be absent this February.

      • Member

        Penny, we deal with global warming always.  FYI, President Trump would call global warming “universal covfefe”.  #wxpun 😀

    • Member

      Hello WXMan! What’s the most frustrating thing about being a Meteorologist and the most rewarding thing, (besides tracking storms).. 🙂

      • Member

        @tornadicx Shalena, I can give you one pro and one con about being a meteorologist.  PRO: The reward is that you get to keep people safe during severe weather.  CON: The most frustrating thing is that you cannot get the forecast right always.  #prosandcons 😀

    • Member

      I wouldn’t consider that a con, I would consider that getting experience.

      • Member

        When it comes to being a meteorologist, some experience is better than no experience is.  Get some advice from Dr. @twcerikanavarro if you are curious.  #wxexp 😀

    • Member

      I agree with both… also sometimes, meteorologists are blamed for things beyond their control, I noticed too…

      • Member

        @tornadicx Shalena, nobody should blame meteorologists for things outside their authority or control.  We need to learn to respect our fellow meteorologists and be thankful for everything they do for us.  #wxpower 😀

      • Member

        Yup! I agree! 🙂 I love Meteorologists! Except for if their name is Shepard Smith and they are reporting on Hurricane Matthew! haha

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