A weak el Nino

started by KEVINL.SEALY, March 9, 2019
3 replies to this discussion
  • Member

    The New York City area for the first time in five winter we may fall below average in snowfall (normal is 25.8″ Central Park). So far 20.5″ to date have fallen Central Park.

    One local meteorologist predicted 40″ of snow for the winter. But this winter has been strange. Our heaviest snowfall occurred on November 15, 2018 6.4″ We had some cold outbreaks in January and February. But this winter hasn’t been all that cold for New York.

  • Member

    WBZ Boston meteorologists, including Eric Fisher ( formerly of TWC ) had forecast a “harsh” winter based on the temperature departure of Nov.  The data is strong that when Nov is two or more degrees F below normal, the winter is cold and snowy.  I’m not sure of the exact frequency, but they blew it.  All three winter months were near or just over two degrees above average, and snow thus far is well below the sixty inches prognosticated.  Perhaps it’s human gases that are the monkey-wrench.  There worst winter outlook ever.  I doubt Don Kent would have been as bad; and his time was before the many indices used to make outlooks

  • Member

    I’ve posted a few times that predicting the weather whether it’s long or short range isn’t an exact science. There is a distinct possibility that the northeast could get hit with a blockbuster nor’easter of three feet of snow this late in the winter season like the Great Blizzard of 1888, although that’s very unlikely. 

  • Very true

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